Bitcoin
Data points used to estimate Bitcoin trend depicted by various traditional forecasting models starting Week Ending (WE) 5/05/2013. NOTE: Vertical Axis Removed on Purpose, see below for explanation. |
The Legal Mumbo-Jumbo:
Disclaimer: The following information is NOT intended for the purpose of providing investment advice. It is solely up to the reader to educate her/himself on Bitcoin or any other form of trade. The information and/or any product and/or service provided as described herein is meant for educational purposes. In other words...Buyer Beware...Enter At Your Own Risk...Mark Well Me Words, Mateys!... Vertical Axis of Graph Depicted Above: You should realize; after reading the above Disclaimer; that I purposefully removed the Y-Axis so that NOONE could construe my graph as providing ANY investment advice. However...
I am providing a tool to IMPROVE CHANCES of $UCCE$$.
The Data Target Forecasting Tool
(a 10 minute YouTube Video Tutorial - for those that don't like reading LONG Blogs)
Payment Methods (PayPal Button for Instant Download) Bitcoin Button for file delivery via email:
(Unsure of Purchase? See Below)
The Data Target Forecasting Tool Accuracy
(a 7 minute YouTube Video Tutorial - How to Measure Tool Accuracy)
After Testing with Bitcoin data...
Remember this metric --> 2.6% (or 97.4% accuracy) <--- (taken 1/20/2014)
the Excel model achieved the above results.
So, How much $ can be made?
Well...there have been reports of sole proprietors refusing to accept Bitcoin as payment (If I recall correctly, it was a Pizza vendor). At the time, Bitcoin was worth ~ $5.00. Had the Pizza vendor accepted the Bitcoin, as in this example, he would have made ~ $3,800.00 on the sale of one pizza [at the current price of about $950.00 per Bitcoin].
So?...That could be just a fluke.
I encourage you to look up Bobby C. Lee's YouTube video talk at Stanford University. He answers some of the most hard-hitting questions with regard to this "currency". Note: Bobby C. Lee is the CEO and a co-founder of BTC China, China's Bitcoin exchange - an exchange that was HEAVILY impacted by the Chinese Government's decision to disallow future exchanges through his company.
Did this stop Bitcoin values from rising?... NO.
Wait a second. How does the Excel model work? And will it always be this accurate?
It works by using algorithms that are typically taught in Business & Engineering graduate schools ( in those classes that make even the sharpest minds go, huh? - not counting some of my quick-witted brethren who already know all this stuff ).
And, NO. It may NOT ALWAYS be this accurate. It could be MORE or LESS accurate. It's always dependent on the input data - just WHY do you think certain agencies have invested so much into data-crunching machines? Not for their health, I'll tell ya!
Okie Dokie. So how much for this Excel Modeling Software? About the same cost as a bagel & latte...$9.00
(see PayPal button below)
Since you've read the disclaimer, you already know that my primary objective here is to spread knowledge. So below is a little of the Who, What, Why, and How of Bitcoin -->
Who?
Satoshi Nakamoto!, that's who. Or an individual or group of people calling themselves Satoshi Nakamoto.
What?
Have you read the White Paper by Sitoshi Nakamoto? If not, I encourage you to read, re-read, and read again. In summary, it is a cryptology-based mathematical accounting system used to ensure:
1) Value by limiting the number of Bitcoin that will ever be available.
2) Transparency by providing a publicly available accounting of every Bitcoin transaction ever made - to the extent that this accounting is necessary to remove transaction fraud.
3) Ease of Use by allowing free (or nearly-free) transmission of the Bitcoin "currency" [if you can actually call it that - which remains to be seen in a government/regulatory legal sense] for any product or service offered in the world [that accepts Bitcoin as payment (or at least a BTC/local-currency exchange)]
1) Value by limiting the number of Bitcoin that will ever be available.
2) Transparency by providing a publicly available accounting of every Bitcoin transaction ever made - to the extent that this accounting is necessary to remove transaction fraud.
3) Ease of Use by allowing free (or nearly-free) transmission of the Bitcoin "currency" [if you can actually call it that - which remains to be seen in a government/regulatory legal sense] for any product or service offered in the world [that accepts Bitcoin as payment (or at least a BTC/local-currency exchange)]
Why?
Well, I'm not sure but I could definitely guess.
Included in my guesses is the theory that "Satoshi" published his (her/their) white-paper as a means to say "Look What I can Do?" - the story goes that he (she/they) simply posted the paper to a "computer-geek" web site (for developers by developers) in order to challenge them to do something with it....which, obviously, they did.
And, now YouTube is FULL of Techno-Explorers claiming to have found The Promised Land.
How?
Go to Bitcoin.org for a pretty in-depth tutorial on all of the ways to purchase/exchange Bitcoin for FIAT currency and/or products & services. Also listed are the many resources from which you can educate yourself on this new phenomena.
(Thank you all for your recent emails. I will be updating to PayPal (or similar) payment system soon )
By the way - I recently received an email asking the logical question: Where do I get my data from?? (You read the disclaimer, right?). I really can't TELL you where to mine your data, HOWEVER, I can provide some pretty good sources of information. See the following:
Erik Johansson's Financial Data Blog (for Bitcoin)
Not only does Erik's blog provide great information, he helps PROVE MY POINT. :)
Sample Screen Shots (in addition to top Graphic):
The 3-Period Moving Average Forecast vs. Actual Data:
The Linear Trend Forecast vs. Actual Data:
More Information Regarding Tool Accuracy:
Why does the Bitcoin forecasting tool work so well?
1) The tool MINIMIZES FORECASTING ERROR : The Power of Mean Absolute Deviation
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